North Dakota’s 2025-2026 statewide grouse population survey has been completed, providing wildlife managers with comprehensive data on four species across multiple regions. The assessment reveals a complex picture: sharp-tailed grouse populations holding steady despite regional shifts, ruffed grouse showing modest growth, and two species—greater prairie chicken and sage grouse—teetering toward functional extinction in the state. A mild winter in 2025-2026 contributed to minimal mortality rates, though harvest pressure and habitat fragmentation continue reshaping population dynamics.
The survey employed standard drumming counts and field assessments across distinct ecological regions including the Southwest, Prairie Potholes, Drift Prairie, and specific locations like the Turtle Mountains and Pembina Hills. These methods capture breeding populations before the fall hunting season, offering a snapshot of reproductive success and overall herd health. The results underscore a shifting balance between species—some adapting to current conditions, others declining despite management efforts.
Table of Contents
- Sharp-Tailed Grouse Population Trends Across North Dakota Regions
- Ruffed Grouse Show Resilience Despite Habitat Fragmentation
- Greater Prairie Chicken Decline and Conservation Status
- Sage Grouse: Near Extinction in North Dakota
- Regional Variations and What Wildlife Biologists Found
- Hunter Impacts and Harvest Trends
- What the 2025-2026 Survey Reveals About Future Management
Sharp-Tailed Grouse Population Trends Across North Dakota Regions
Sharp-tailed grouse remain North Dakota’s most abundant grouse species, with the statewide count unchanged from 2025 to 2026. However, this aggregate stability masks significant regional variation that tells a more nuanced story. The southwest region recorded 4.9 males per square mile, down 8% from the previous year, suggesting localized pressures or habitat shifts in that area. Meanwhile, the Prairie Potholes region held steady at 5 males per square mile with a modest 2% increase, indicating this region continues as a stronghold for the species.
The Drift Prairie region posted the strongest gain, with 2.9 males per square mile representing a 10% increase year-over-year. This regional variation matters because it affects where hunters concentrate effort and where habitat management should focus. A mild winter in 2025-2026 led to minimal mortality across regions, meaning population declines in the Southwest likely stem from other factors—possibly reduced nesting success, predation, or ongoing grassland loss—rather than weather-related die-offs. Understanding these distinctions helps wildlife agencies target conservation resources where they’re most needed.
Ruffed Grouse Show Resilience Despite Habitat Fragmentation
Ruffed grouse present a contrasting trend to sharp-tailed grouse, with populations increasing slightly since 2019 despite isolation and fragmentation of their northern forest habitat. The 2025-2026 survey recorded a 40% increase in drums heard in the Turtle Mountains compared to 2025, a significant jump that suggests successful breeding in that stronghold. The Pembina Hills region, however, saw a 15% decrease, indicating that ruffed grouse recovery is geographically uneven and tied to local forest conditions.
The fragmentation of ruffed grouse habitat—particularly the breakup of continuous aspen and mixed-wood forest into smaller patches—typically suppresses populations by increasing predation and reducing breeding opportunity. Yet the Turtle Mountains’ dramatic 40% increase suggests that certain forest patches provide sufficient refuge and resources to support growing birds. This paradox highlights an important limitation: not all forest habitat functions equally, and small population gains in protected or favorable areas may mask broader habitat loss elsewhere. The Pembina Hills’ 15% decline serves as a reminder that progress is neither guaranteed nor statewide.
Greater Prairie Chicken Decline and Conservation Status
Greater prairie chicken populations in North Dakota have contracted to a fraction of historical levels, with only small populations persisting in Grand Forks County and the Sheyenne National Grasslands. These remnant populations cannot sustain hunting pressure, which is why the hunting season remains closed. The core problem is straightforward: North Dakota no longer holds enough suitable, intact tallgrass prairie to support a huntable population. The conversion of native grassland to agriculture, fire suppression leading to woody encroachment, and fragmentation have systematically eliminated the large, continuous prairie tracts that prairie chickens require.
The greater prairie chicken’s decline illustrates a critical limitation of state-level wildlife management: some species depend on landscape-scale habitat that exceeds what any single state, county, or wildlife refuge can maintain. The birds need lek sites—traditional gathering grounds for courtship—situated within large blocks of native prairie, often 50,000 acres or more. When leks become isolated or surrounded by unsuitable habitat, breeding fails and populations collapse. Recovery would require not only protecting remaining prairie but restoring substantial acreage—a multi-generational, landscape-level commitment that extends beyond typical wildlife management budgets and timelines.
Sage Grouse: Near Extinction in North Dakota
The 2025-2026 survey recorded only one male and one female sage grouse in North Dakota, a state that historically hosted breeding populations across western regions. The hunting season remains closed and has been for years. This near-extinction reflects a broader decline of sage grouse across the western United States, driven by loss of sagebrush habitat to development, rangeland fragmentation, invasive cheatgrass spread, and altered fire regimes.
In North Dakota specifically, the combination of agricultural expansion and the encroachment of woody vegetation into sagebrush has eliminated suitable breeding habitat. The presence of only two individuals in 2026 raises the possibility that North Dakota’s remaining sage grouse are occasional visitors or wanderers from neighboring states rather than a breeding population with reproductive viability. This distinction matters because a few individuals passing through an area provide minimal conservation value compared to an established, self-sustaining population. Recovery would require restoration of large sagebrush tracts—work that may be impossible given current land-use patterns and economics in North Dakota’s sage grouse range.
Regional Variations and What Wildlife Biologists Found
The survey’s regional breakdown reveals that grouse populations are not uniformly distributed and that local conditions drive species-specific outcomes. Sharp-tailed grouse favor the semi-arid prairies of western and central North Dakota, where they concentrate in the Southwest and Prairie Potholes regions. Ruffed grouse inhabit the northern forest edge, thriving where aspen and mixed-wood forests provide cover and food. Greater prairie chicken historically nested in the native grasslands of central and northwestern regions, though viable populations have been reduced to two small remnants.
Sage grouse, when present, occupy sagebrush steppe in the far western portions of the state. This geographic separation means that management strategies must be tailored to each region’s ecology and species. A conservation effort in the Turtle Mountains aimed at ruffed grouse—perhaps protecting aspen stands or reducing human disturbance during breeding season—would have little relevance in the Prairie Potholes, where grassland management for sharp-tailed grouse takes precedence. Wildlife managers use survey data like the 2025-2026 results to adjust habitat targets and funding allocation region by region, recognizing that one-size-fits-all policy fails to address the nuanced needs of these species.
Hunter Impacts and Harvest Trends
Sharp-tailed grouse harvest declined 24% in fall 2025 compared to the previous year, the most dramatic change reported in the survey. This decline can reflect either reduced bird abundance, lower hunter effort, or shortened season lengths implemented to protect populations. A 24% harvest drop, paired with a stable statewide population count, suggests that either birds were less abundant in areas where hunters concentrate effort, or that hunters faced more restrictive conditions. The regional data supports the first explanation: the Southwest region’s 8% population decline directly preceded the fall harvest season, meaning fewer birds were available for hunters in that area.
Harvest data also provides biologists with feedback on population sustainability. If harvests remain stable or decline while populations do the same, it signals that current hunting regulations are allowing populations to maintain themselves. If harvests increased sharply while populations declined, it would indicate over-hunting. The 24% harvest decrease, set against stable statewide populations but declining Southwest regional counts, suggests a mixed picture requiring ongoing monitoring to determine whether regulations need adjustment.
What the 2025-2026 Survey Reveals About Future Management
The 2025-2026 grouse survey provides baseline data that will guide North Dakota Game and Fish management decisions through the next hunting season and beyond. For sharp-tailed grouse, the focus remains on protecting and restoring prairie habitat, particularly in the Southwest region where counts fell 8%, while maintaining the Prairie Potholes and Drift Prairie strongholds. The modest increase in Drift Prairie suggests that conservation work in that region is paying dividends, and similar strategies might be applied elsewhere.
Ruffed grouse management will likely emphasize forest protection in the Turtle Mountains, where the species is thriving, while investigating the 15% decline in the Pembina Hills to determine whether intervention is needed. Greater prairie chicken and sage grouse will remain conservation challenges requiring landscape-level habitat restoration that extends far beyond traditional hunting-season management—these species are effectively off-limits to hunters and likely will remain so for the foreseeable future. The mild winter of 2025-2026 provided a window of opportunity for population growth; harsher winters ahead could reverse recent gains, especially for populations already stressed by habitat loss and fragmentation.
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